# IMD November 2026 Forecast: Below-Normal Northeast Monsoon Rain, El Niño and Rabi Impact

Source page: https://rankvyuh.com/current-affairs/news/imd-november-2026-rainfall-outlook-below-normal-el-nino  ·  Section: Environment & Ecology  ·  Published: 2026-11-01  ·  Updated: 2026-11-01  ·  Language: en
Also in Hindi: https://rankvyuh.com/hi/current-affairs/news/imd-november-2026-rainfall-outlook-below-normal-el-nino-hindi

**In one line:** IMD's outlook of 31 Oct 2026 says November rainfall is likely to be below normal (<77% of LPA) over South Peninsular India and all-India, with above-normal temperatures, a very strong El Niño and a neutral IOD.

## Key facts
- **Released:** 31 October 2026, IMD (Ministry of Earth Sciences)
- **South Peninsula rain, Nov:** Below normal, <77% of LPA (LPA ~118.7 mm)
- **All-India rain, Nov:** Below normal, <77% of LPA (LPA ~29.7 mm)
- **Temperatures:** Above-normal max and min over most of India
- **ENSO:** Very strong El Niño, likely through Nov–Dec 2026
- **IOD:** Neutral likely till Dec 2026 (index above +0.4 °C, not yet sustained)
- **OND season forecast (30 Sep):** Normal, 88–112% of LPA (~334.1 mm), South Peninsula
- **NE monsoon onset 2026:** 15 October 2026

## Timeline
- 1998: IMD starts seasonal forecasts of northeast monsoon rain over the south peninsula
- 2021: IMD adopts MME-based strategy for monthly and seasonal forecasts
- 30 Sep 2026: IMD forecasts normal OND rainfall (88–112% of LPA) for South Peninsular India
- 1 Oct 2026: Northeast Monsoon Seasonal Outlook Forum held in Chennai
- 15 Oct 2026: Southwest monsoon withdraws from entire country; northeast monsoon rain begins
- 31 Oct 2026: IMD November outlook: below-normal rain (<77% of LPA), very strong El Niño
- End Nov 2026: IMD to issue December forecast and December–February outlook

## What happened

On **31 October 2026**, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, released its **Monthly Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature for November 2026**. The headline: November rainfall is **most likely to be below normal (less than 77% of the Long Period Average, LPA)** both over **South Peninsular India** and over the **country as a whole**.

IMD also expects **above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures** over most of India, says **very strong El Niño conditions** are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and likely to continue in November–December 2026, and expects **neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions** to continue till December 2026.

## Background

**Northeast monsoon.** After the southwest monsoon withdraws, winds over south India turn easterly/northeasterly and bring the **northeast monsoon (October–December, OND)**. IMD calls OND the post-monsoon season. In 2026, IMD's Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai announced on **15 October** that the southwest monsoon had withdrawn from the entire country and northeast monsoon rainfall had commenced the same day over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe.

**Why it matters to the south.** According to IMD, South Peninsular India (five meteorological subdivisions) receives about **30% of its annual rainfall** in OND, and **Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal about 48%**. IMD has issued seasonal forecasts for northeast monsoon rainfall over the south peninsula since **1998**.

**How IMD forecasts.** Since **2021**, IMD has combined its statistical models with a **Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)** of coupled global climate models from several centres, including its own **Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS)**.

**What the season forecast said.** On **30 September 2026**, IMD forecast OND rainfall over South Peninsular India to be **normal (88–112% of LPA)**, against an OND LPA of about **334.1 mm** (1971–2020). The 31 October outlook is the first month-level signal for the heart of the season, and it points the other way for November.

## Key details

| Item | IMD outlook for November 2026 |
|---|---|
| South Peninsular India rainfall | Below normal, less than 77% of LPA |
| LPA for November, South Peninsula (1971–2020) | About 118.7 mm |
| All-India rainfall | Below normal, less than 77% of LPA |
| LPA for November, all-India (1971–2020) | About 29.7 mm |
| Exceptions (rainfall) | Normal to above normal likely in some areas of central, northwest, east and northeast India (the release's highlights list only central, northwest and northeast; the detailed text adds east) |
| Maximum temperature | Above normal over most parts; normal to below normal in some regions along the Himalayan foothills |
| Minimum temperature | Above normal over most parts; normal to below normal in many parts of central and eastern India |
| ENSO | Very strong El Niño now; likely to continue in November–December 2026 |
| IOD | Index has exceeded the +0.4 °C positive threshold but not for long enough to count as an event; neutral conditions likely till December 2026 |
| Next update | December 2026 monthly forecast and December–February seasonal outlook, end of November 2026 |

**The five subdivisions of South Peninsular India:** Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal; Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam; Rayalaseema; Kerala & Mahe; and South Interior Karnataka.

**A detail worth noting on the IOD.** The highlights of IMD's release describe the IOD as neutral, but its detailed text says the IOD index has currently **exceeded the positive IOD threshold of +0.4 °C**. Values must stay above the threshold for a sustained period before a positive IOD event is considered established, and IMD's MMCFS and other models still expect neutral conditions through the post-monsoon season (till December 2026).

**Tercile categories.** IMD's maps give the probability of three categories (above normal, normal, below normal), each with an equal climatological chance of **33.33%**. The percentage limits for "normal" depend on the region and period: the OND season forecast for the south peninsula used 88–112% of LPA, while the November outlook marks below normal as under 77% of LPA.

## Why it matters

- **Water and farming in the south:** November is a key month of the northeast monsoon. Tamil Nadu depends on OND rain for nearly half its annual rainfall, so a dry November affects reservoir storage and groundwater.
- **Rabi sowing:** IMD's 30 September release warned that below-normal rainfall during the rabi season could hurt soil moisture, water availability and farm productivity, raise irrigation needs and the chance of dry spells, and reduce reservoir and groundwater recharge.
- **Warmer nights:** above-normal minimum temperatures over most of India mean warmer nights in a month that usually marks the start of winter cooling.
- **Climate drivers in action:** the outlook is a live example of how El Niño and the IOD shape Indian rainfall, a favourite theme in UPSC and State PSC papers.

## Issues and criticism

- **Season vs month:** the 30 September seasonal forecast was "normal" for the south peninsula, while the November outlook is "below normal". This is not a contradiction in itself, since October and December rain also count towards the season, but students should quote each forecast with its date.
- **Limits of prediction:** IMD's northeast monsoon forum document (Chennai, 1 October 2026) notes that seasonal predictability in this season is limited by strong day-to-day variability from disturbances in the easterlies and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
- **Mixed signals on the IOD:** the index has crossed the positive threshold, yet IMD expects neutral conditions. Watch IMD's next updates rather than assuming a positive IOD.
- **Climate change:** the same IMD forum document says global warming is expected to raise the frequency and intensity of extremes such as heavy rainfall, dry spells and heat waves in the region.

## Way forward

- **Use IMD's shorter-range tools:** IMD issues extended-range forecasts (7-day averages for the next four weeks) every Thursday, plus daily short- to medium-range forecasts; farmers and officials can plan sowing and irrigation week by week.
- **Water budgeting:** IMD has advised authorities to assess water availability, optimise irrigation, promote water conservation and keep agricultural contingency plans ready.
- **Impact-based warnings:** IMD recommends using its Impact-Based Forecasts and risk-based advisories for timely decisions.
- **Track the next outlook:** IMD will publish the December forecast and the December–February outlook at the end of November 2026.

Revise this week's events with the [weekly current affairs quiz](/current-affairs), and see the [UPSC Prelims](/upsc-prelims) page for the syllabus.

## Prelims pointers

- IMD's November 2026 outlook: rainfall **below normal (<77% of LPA)** for South Peninsular India and all-India.
- November LPA (1971–2020): **about 118.7 mm** for South Peninsular India; **about 29.7 mm** for all-India.
- OND (post-monsoon) LPA for South Peninsular India: **about 334.1 mm**; the 30 Sep 2026 forecast for the season was **normal (88–112% of LPA)**.
- South Peninsula gets **about 30%** of its annual rain in OND; **Tamil Nadu about 48%**.
- In 2026 the southwest monsoon withdrew from the whole country and the northeast monsoon began on **15 October**.
- IMD's own coupled model: **Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS)**; MME-based forecasting since **2021**.
- Positive IOD threshold cited by IMD: **+0.4 °C**.
- IMD functions under the **Ministry of Earth Sciences**.

## One-liners for SSC, Banking and Railways

- IMD released its November 2026 rainfall and temperature outlook on **31 October 2026**.
- The northeast monsoon season runs from **October to December**.
- The Indian state that gets nearly half its annual rain from the northeast monsoon: **Tamil Nadu**.
- LPA in IMD forecasts stands for **Long Period Average**.
- Ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the Pacific cited by IMD for November 2026: **very strong El Niño**.
- Below-normal winter rain can hurt **rabi** crops through low soil moisture.

## Mains practice question

**Q.** "The northeast monsoon is small in all-India terms but decisive for South Peninsular India." Discuss, with reference to IMD's outlook for November 2026 and the role of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole. (250 words, GS I/GS III)

Points to cover:

1. Mechanism and regions of the northeast monsoon; Tamil Nadu's ~48% share of annual rain.
2. IMD's forecasts: OND "normal" (30 Sep) and November "below normal, <77% of LPA" (31 Oct); LPA and tercile categories.
3. How El Niño and the IOD influence the season, and the limits of seasonal prediction (MJO, easterly disturbances).
4. Impacts on rabi sowing, reservoirs and groundwater, and the role of IMD's extended-range and impact-based forecasts.

## Exam angle
- **UPSC:** GS I (Indian monsoon, ENSO, IOD) and GS III (agriculture, water security); Prelims on LPA and NE monsoon
- **State PSC:** TNPSC, APPSC, KPSC, Kerala PSC: NE monsoon dependence, reservoirs, rabi crops
- **SSC:** Static GK: NE monsoon months, Tamil Nadu's rain season, IMD under MoES
- **Banking:** Agriculture awareness: rabi sowing and soil moisture risk from below-normal rain
- **Railways:** One-liners: IMD November 2026 outlook, El Niño, LPA

## Key terms
- **Long Period Average (LPA):** Average rainfall for a region and period over a long base; IMD's current base is 1971–2020
- **Northeast monsoon:** October–December rain over south India brought by easterly/northeasterly winds after the southwest monsoon withdraws
- **El Niño:** Warm phase of ENSO: unusually warm sea surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
- **Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):** Difference in sea surface temperature between the western and eastern Indian Ocean; positive when the west is warmer
- **Tercile categories:** Above normal, normal and below normal, each with an equal 33.33% climatological chance

## Sources
- [IMD press release: Monthly Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature for November 2026, 31 Oct 2026](https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20261031_pr_5452.pdf)
- [IMD press release: Seasonal outlook for Post-Monsoon Season 2026 and October 2026, 30 Sep 2026](https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/marquee_data/Press_Release%20OND_30-09-2026.pdf)
- [IMD: Northeast Monsoon Seasonal Outlook Forum 2026 (NEMSOF-2026), Chennai, 1 Oct 2026](https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/mcmarq/mcmarq_data/Outlook%20for%20the%20NE%20Monsoon%20over%20SPI_1Oct%2026_ENGLISH.pdf)
- [IMD RMC Chennai: Withdrawal of southwest monsoon, commencement of northeast monsoon, 15 Oct 2026](https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/mcmarq/mcmarq_data/press%2015102026.pdf)

---
Published by RankVyuh (https://rankvyuh.com), checked against the sources above. Quiz for this article: https://rankvyuh.com/current-affairs/news/imd-november-2026-rainfall-outlook-below-normal-el-nino#quiz