Cyclone Arnab 2026: IMD Forecast, Landfall Zone, Naming and Cyclone Categories Explained

What happened

A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal intensified into Cyclonic Storm "Arnab" on 26 October 2026. As per IMD's bulletin of 0530 hrs IST on 26 October 2026 (as reported in the Cabinet Secretariat's PIB release of the same day), the storm lay over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, about 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 730 km east-southeast of Kakinada. IMD forecast that it would move west-northwest until 27 October, then turn northwest and cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam as a very severe cyclonic storm by the forenoon of 28 October 2026.

By 27 October, IMD officials quoted by DD News and Akashvani described Arnab as a very severe cyclonic storm. On the evening of 27 October, IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told Akashvani that a storm surge of about 2.5 m above the astronomical tide could flood low-lying areas, especially around Kakinada. Later that evening, IMD's update (based on 5:30 pm observations, as reported by DD News) placed the storm about 90 km southeast of Kakinada and said faster movement meant it would now cross the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to the south of Yanam, between 2 am and 4 am on 28 October, with winds of 125–135 km/h gusting to 150 km/h.

Background

Naming. Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean are named by IMD's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) New Delhi. A system gets a name once its maximum sustained surface wind reaches 34 knots (62 km/h), the cyclonic storm stage. Naming in this region began in September 2004 with a list from eight countries; its last name was Amphan. A new list of 169 names (13 from each of 13 member countries) was adopted by the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones in April 2020. "Arnab" was proposed by Bangladesh.

The 13 members are Bangladesh, India, Iran, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, the UAE and Yemen. Names are used in sequence, column by column, and a used name is never repeated. Names must be neutral on politics, religion, culture and gender, and no longer than eight letters.

Why the Bay of Bengal sees more cyclones. IMD's RSMC notes that the Bay of Bengal gets roughly four times as many cyclones as the Arabian Sea. Many Bay systems are remnants of northwest Pacific typhoons that travel across the South China Sea, and the Arabian Sea is cooler, which works against cyclone formation and intensification.

Post-monsoon season. Cyclone frequency in the region has two peaks: the main one in November and a secondary one in May. The most severe cyclones form in May–June and October–November. In July–September, strong vertical wind shear of the monsoon limits intensification.

Key details

IMD intensity scale (maximum sustained wind)

Preparedness. Cabinet Secretary Dr T. V. Somanathan chaired the National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) on 26 October and set the goal of "zero loss of life" and minimum damage to property and infrastructure. NDRF and SDRF teams were deployed, the Army, Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard kept ships and aircraft ready, and fishermen were told not to go to sea off Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Yanam from 26 to 29 October. NDRF DIG Mohsen Shahedi said on 27 October that 31 NDRF teams were deployed across five states and UTs. Odisha shut schools, colleges and anganwadis on 28–29 October in six southern districts (Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Malkangiri, Koraput and Nabarangpur). The Ministry of Home Affairs asked 14 states and UTs to move coastal residents to safety and suspend fishing.

Why it matters

• Lives and property: IMD's DG warned of damage to houses, trees, power lines and standing crops. IMD's FAQ calls storm surge the greatest killer in a cyclone.
• Disaster governance: the response shows India's tiered system at work: IMD warning, NCMC review, MHA directions, NDRF and SDRF on the ground, and state evacuation.
• Inland rain: after landfall, IMD expected heavy rain over Telangana, south Odisha, Chhattisgarh, East UP and Bihar, so the impact reaches far beyond the coast.
• Exam value: naming, intensity categories and cyclone seasons are regular questions in UPSC Prelims, state PSCs and SSC.

Issues and criticism

• Changing forecasts: the wind figures quoted went up between 26 and 27 October (115–125 km/h to 125–135 km/h). Students and the public should rely on the latest IMD bulletin, not older reports.
• Surge and low-lying coasts: IMD's FAQ notes that surge is worst when landfall coincides with high tide, which makes timely evacuation of low-lying villages critical.
• Livelihood costs: fishing bans, school closures and suspended road and rail traffic protect lives but disrupt incomes. Odisha advised farmers to harvest crops that were 80–85% mature, and Andhra Pradesh released Rs 27 crore to 20 districts for relief, as DD News reported.

Way forward

• Keep last-mile warnings reaching fishermen and coastal villages in local languages.
• Restore power, water and roads quickly after the storm, as the NCMC directed.
• Assess crop and housing damage promptly so that relief reaches farmers and families on time.
• Keep strengthening surge mapping and cyclone shelters along the east coast.

For a quick revision of this week's events, try the weekly current affairs quiz, and see the UPSC Prelims page for the syllabus.

Prelims pointers

• Cyclone Arnab's name was proposed by Bangladesh.
• The current North Indian Ocean list was adopted by the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones in April 2020: 169 names, 13 countries.
• A system is named at the cyclonic storm stage: 34 knots (62 km/h) or more.
• RSMC New Delhi (IMD) names cyclones over the North Indian Ocean.
• A very severe cyclonic storm has winds of 64–89 knots (118–166 km/h).
• Cyclone frequency peaks in November (main) and May (secondary).
• NDRF was constituted under Section 44 of the Disaster Management Act, 2005; NDMA is headed by the Prime Minister.
• NCMC is chaired by the Cabinet Secretary.

One-liners for SSC, Banking and Railways

• Cyclone Arnab formed over the Bay of Bengal in October 2026.
• Forecast landfall: between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, close to Yanam.
• Name "Arnab" was given by Bangladesh.
• India's weather agency that issues cyclone warnings: India Meteorological Department (IMD).
• NDRF works under the Ministry of Home Affairs.

Mains practice question

Q. "The Bay of Bengal is more cyclone-prone than the Arabian Sea, yet cyclone deaths in India have fallen sharply." Explain the reasons, using the example of Cyclone Arnab (2026). (250 words, GS III)

Points to cover:

1. Physical reasons: typhoon remnants from the Pacific, warmer sea, the November and May peaks.
2. Early warning: IMD's intensity scale, track forecasts and surge warnings.
3. Institutional response: NCMC, MHA, NDMA, NDRF and SDRF, and state evacuation for "zero loss of life".
4. Gaps: livelihood losses, crop damage and the need for faster restoration.